Transportation, food and restaurants are the items that have become more expensive this year and inflation has already reached 9.7%
The possibility that inflation -a general rise in prices in the economy- decreases in the remainder of the year was ruled out, considering that, during the past month, the indicator accelerated again and the inflationary rhythm almost reached 10%.
This means that, in one year, goods and services became more expensive by 9.7% (on average, against 9.3% in September), according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) prepared by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) . This percentage is the highest of those observed in the months of October of the 2015-2021 series, when the average was 3.71%.
By division of expenditure, the behavior of transportation stands out with a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, food 13.6% and restaurants 9.72%.
As for the interior of the country, in region II (Cobán and San Pedro Carchá) the indicator stood at 13.2%; and in region VII (Huehuetenango, Chiantla and Quiché) at 11.32%, which exceeds the national average.
Meanwhile, monthly inflation stood at 0.98% and is higher than the 0.36% of September, becoming one of the highest in the last 12 months. This behavior also influenced accumulated inflation (from January to October) which was 8.99%, while in September it was 7.93%.
Once again, a higher increase in prices is observed in the departments, since region IV (Jutiapa, El Progreso and Jalapa), monthly inflation was 1.63%; in region I (metropolitan area, Mixco, Villa Nueva, Chinautla, San José Pinula, Santa Catarina Pinula, San Juan Sacatepéquez, among others) 1.13%; and in region III (Puerto Barrios, Santo Tomás de Castilla and Chiquimula) at 1.1%, which are the highest.
Breaking down the 12 spending divisions of the CPI in October alone, transportation had an incidence of 6%, restaurants 0.97% and food 0.81%, which set the trend.
Likewise, the INE indicates that, in October, the purchasing power of the quetzal was Q0.60, losing 40 cents compared to the base year (December 2010) and 6 cents compared to October 2021.
Gonzalez Ricci: “We must take the necessary measures”
When consulting Álvaro González Ricci, president of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), about the behavior of inflation in October, he stated that, given these figures, the messages will be sent and the necessary measures will be taken to adjust inflation towards the goal original 4% plus/minus one.
He recalled that everything that is happening is an effect on a global scale, and justified that 70% of inflation is imported and only reflects the external environment.
The official added that inflation in the United States is coming down, through an aggressive monetary policy, and to the extent that a decrease is seen in that country, in Guatemala it will also be seen in the medium term.
In any case, at the end of the month there will be another session of the Monetary Board in which it will decide on the leading interest rate, which today is 3%.
“The monetary policy measures that are adopted take between five months to take effect, but the most important thing is that all economic agents realize that the central bank is doing what is necessary to return inflation levels,” he stressed. .
For now, forecasts point to inflation closing at 9.75% in 2022, but he reiterated that 70% of inflation is not being generated in Guatemala, but rather comes from abroad (imported).
Basic basket
The cost of the Basic Food Basket (CBA) that includes 34 basic goods, was situated at Q3 thousand 633.85, which means an increase of Q94.91 with respect to September, when it was Q3 thousand 538.94. The daily cost is Q109.50.
While the Expanded Basket (CA), which in addition to food includes other expenses such as transportation, clothing, recreation, among others, was at Q8 thousand 390.33, and is higher in Q219.15 in relation to September, when it was Q8 thousand 171.18.
