What explains the heavy rains that have affected the capital in the middle of November?
November came with a heavy rain load that has significantly affected the entire countryeven to the Guatemalan capital, where in this month, winter is usually gone.
The showers surprised the inhabitants of the capital this week that they had to face the floods and traffic left by the rains which, due to their intensity, confirm that this year has been one of the wettest in the history of Guatemala.
The National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (Insivumeh) indicated that these rains are due to the excessive humidity that is still in the country after the passage of the recent tropical storm that affected the country and that has been capable of destabilizing climatic conditions.
“The rains that are occurring are because we still have humidity in the environment, there is humidity entering from both coasts plus daytime heating “explained Vivian Roldán, Insivumeh meteorologist.
Although the cold season has already begun, the country could continue to be affected by humid conditions, since, according to forecasts, At least until 2023, Guatemala will be influenced by the La Niña phenomenon, which for Central America represents more rain.
The report Monthly Climate Outlook November 2022 from Insivumeh points out that, in the quarter from November 2022 to January 2023, “There is an 84% probability of La Niña conditions, 16% of neutral conditions and 0% of El Niño conditions.”.
This perspective is prepared by the scientific entity based on data from the International Climate Research Institute (IRI, English), and concludes that “La Niña conditions are expected to prevail through early 2023.”
Also, hurricane season not finished yet. Officially ends until November 30.
During the current one, there have been 11 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic count and in the remainder of the month “the formation of at least seven more is expected” in this part of the sea “that could directly or indirectly affect the region.
While in the Pacific more of these tropical phenomena have been formed, 17 in total, although no more are expected in the remainder of the season, according to information from Insivumeh, which is based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, in English.
Cold
The Insivumeh also revealed in its report that between November and December six to eight cold fronts could affect the country. The first entered last October 20, although the temperature did not drop much.
“In November between two to three cold fronts are expected, a range within normal “, according to the entity, while in December and January a forecast “slightly higher than normal” is expected between four and five. In February three to four are expected and in March two to three.
The Insivumeh explained that a cold front is a separation surface of two air masses: a warm and humid one that enters from the Caribbean Sea, and another cold and dry one from mid-latitudes that is displaced by a high pressure system (wind).
In Central America and southern Mexico, they enter through the Gulf of Mexico and, depending on the wind, can reach the Yucatan Peninsula and move through the Caribbean Sea.
Regarding temperatures, the scientific entity said that, when analyzing the “analog years” that have been recorded since 1991, the minimum temperature in the capital could be 11 degrees Celsius, while in Quetzaltenango, 5.
For the capital, the most intense cold season was in 2006 when thermometers dropped to 7 degrees Celsius.
